Rosenbound
00 · sensitivity-bounded clinical AI

Causal inference you can defend in front of regulators.

Standard causal-inference tools report a point estimate. Rosenbound reports the estimate, the Rosenbaum-Γ sensitivity bound that says how fragile it is, a five-method robustness pentagon, and a 21 CFR Part 11 ALCOA+ audit chain — on one platform, built for the pharmacovigilance and real-world-evidence teams who answer to the FDA.

INS·01 worst-case p over Γ and effect size — drag to orbit
−log10 pα = 0.05 Γ 1.02.03.0 A · θ 0.42C · θ 0.61B · θ 0.19
1.00
1.02.03.0
ATT
0.42 ± 0.11
p max
0.0001
Γ*
1.79
verdict
holds
Illustrative studies for the instrument — not platform results. Locked results are in 06 · Benchmarks.
01 · in numbers
  • 12benchmark lanes, locked
  • 5causal methods per study
  • 1.64Mclinical notes processed — MIMIC-IV, research use
  • 2026-03-22USPTO provisional filed
02 · why now

The FDA is starting to ask for exactly what Rosenbound reports.

“Identifying and addressing the presence of confounding and other forms of bias is critical… planned sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of study findings.”

— FDA, Non-Interventional Studies draft guidance, March 2024

Read the regulator context

The FDA Sentinel Innovation Center’s PRINCIPLED process (Desai, Wang et al., BMJ 2024;384:e076460) prescribes “a plan for robustness assessments including deterministic sensitivity analyses, quantitative bias analyses, and net bias evaluation.”

Rosenbound’s Rosenbaum-Γ bound is precisely this class of robustness instrument — reported as a default output on every study, not an afterthought. It is the operational answer to a stated regulator expectation.

Aligned with the FDA RWE Framework (final guidance Aug 31, 2023) and the EHR/Medical Claims Data guidance (final Jul 25, 2024). Full alignment map at /regulatory.

Watch the platform walkthrough at rosenbound.ai — three moments: the Cognitive Validation Report refusing incoherent data, the live Γ-bound sensitivity visualization, and the reproducibility certificate generated on every study. The full platform is open to Design Partners.

Watch the preview →
03 · four verticals, one substrate

Where Rosenbound applies.

The same causal-inference engine and audit ledger, across four settings. Pharmacovigilance and real-world evidence are live; drug discovery and physician decision support are on the roadmap. Each vertical has its own page.

PV·01 · Pharmacovigilancelive 2026

Drug-safety triage with sensitivity bounds

For drug-safety and pharmacovigilance teams in pharma and at CROs. Replaces hand-coded FAERS-disproportionality workflows. Every adverse-event signal arrives with Rosenbaum bounds, MedDRA preferred terms, a dual-attestation reviewer workflow, and 21 CFR Part 11 ALCOA+ provenance — regulator-ready by default.

→ Pharmacovigilance

CR·02 · Real-World Evidencelive 2026

Causal RWE methodology, packaged.

For RWE methodology leads at academic medical centers and CROs. Five-method causal sensitivity pentagon as a single API call. Cohort DSL, OMOP CDM ingestion roadmap, target-trial-emulation protocol scaffolding, reproducibility certificate on every study. Replaces the hand-rolled methodologist work behind every observational study.

→ Real-World Evidence

DD·03 · Drug Discovery2027 roadmap

Causal effect estimation for target validation.

For computational biology and target-discovery teams. The D-MPNN molecular-property stack (validated on BACE / BBBP / HIV scaffold splits) is benchmark-locked. Causal mechanism-of-action work is on the 2027 roadmap; the benchmark capability stands as a published claim today.

→ Drug Discovery

RX·04 · Physician Decision Supportpost-2027 · 510(k)

Treatment-selection risk surface.

For ICU and academic-medical-center physicians making individualized treatment decisions. Targeted FDA Class II SaMD via 510(k) with a Predetermined Change Control Plan; Q-Submission planned after the first Design Partnership concludes. Available post-2027 after clinical-deployment validation.

→ Physician CDS

04 · what you get when you log in

Five modules. One audited substrate.

Behind the login — and inside the live demo at rosenbound.ai — is a working clinical-AI platform. Five modules, integrated, mutually auditable. This is the platform a Design Partner uses on day one.

Module 01 — Cohorts

Cohort intake with cognitive validation.

CSV upload with schema auto-detection, type inference, archetype suggestion, treatment/outcome/index-date mapping into an auto-generated Cohort DSL. The Cognitive Validation Report blocks ingestion of incoherent data and explains why — temporal, ontological, biological, and causal-acyclicity vetoes.

Open the demo → A synthetic cohort, no login, no setup — production-shape data, production-shape outputs.
05 · methodology

Five methods. One pentagon. Full sensitivity.

Standard practice reports one ATT estimate. Rosenbound reports the full sensitivity pentagon plus quantitative bounds — every number arrives with the uncertainty its method admits. Overview below; the full specification is at /methodology.

INS·02 five-method pentagon — rotate, click a node
AIPWDR-ATTIV-LATENEURALROSENBAUM Γ COHORT
Method 05Rosenbaum Γ

AIPW (Augmented Inverse Propensity Weighting)

Doubly-robust per Robins-Rotnitzky-Zhao 1994 + Bang-Robins 2005. Three covariate-enrichment stages.

DR-ATT with Crump-2009 overlap trim

Hahn-1998 doubly-robust ATT estimand. Tight propensity clipping for small-N panels.

IV-LATE (2SLS instrumental variable)

Per-prescriber preference instrument. Strong-instrument diagnostics + m-of-n bootstrap CI.

Neural counterfactual estimator

Patent-pending individual-level treatment-effect estimation with representation-balanced learning. Architecture under NDA.

Rosenbaum 2002 Γ-sensitivity bounds

Quantifies the unobserved-bias strength required to flip an estimate. The differentiating reporting layer.

06 · benchmarks

Locked numbers.

Every figure below is from a full-corpus training run — not a smoke run, not a chosen seed. Headline lanes here; the complete tables (W1–W13, FAERS, ACIC22, D-MPNN, HNSI) are at /benchmarks, with raw log references available to Design Partners under NDA.

  • W·01 MIMIC-IVlocked
    0.9476In-hospital mortality test AUROC, ECE 0.0024, full 546K-admission corpus
  • FAERS·Blocked
    0.8872Severity-classifier AUROC on n = 158,732 temporal-split test
  • ACIC22·T2locked
    77.5%CI coverage on the full 3,400-cohort canonical, bias +19.26
  • W·13 MIMIC-IVlocked
    RCT-consistentDOAC vs warfarin: first observational lane to recover the RCT direction on bleeding
07 · regulatory pathway

Built to regulator standards from day one.

Non-device CDS exemption

Pharmacovigilance triage satisfies all four criteria of 21st Century Cures Act § 3060: transparent algorithms, documented provenance, human-in-the-loop, independent review of the basis for the recommendation. Available to Design Partners in 2026 without 510(k).

21 CFR Part 11 ALCOA+ by design

The audit module is built to 21 CFR Part 11 § 11.10(a)–(k): SHA-256 chained ledger, monotonic timestamps, fsync + multi-writer protection, external-verifiable. Its outputs are structured to drop into a regulated workflow without bolt-on audit infrastructure.

FDA 7-step AI credibility framework

Structured around the January 2025 draft “Considerations for the Use of Artificial Intelligence To Support Regulatory Decision-Making” — context-of-use definition, model-risk assessment, credibility-assessment plan, execution, documentation, adequacy determination. Applied today on the PV and RWE verticals, not deferred to a future SaMD.

SaMD pathway documented (post-2027)

Q-Submission scoping for clinician-facing CDS is planned after the first Design Partnership concludes. A Predetermined Change Control Plan is drafted in parallel — the no-LLM-in-the-prediction-path, frozen-feature architecture keeps the modification space bounded and auditable.

INS·03 edit a payload — watch the chain break
Module 04 — Audit

Try to alter the record.

Every state transition is committed to a SHA-256 chained ledger. External-verifiable. Tamper with any payload below — the hashes recompute live in your browser.

Illustrative entries — not platform records
#EventPayloadSHA-256Edit
01cohort.createcohort=illustrative-A · source=synthetic · dsl=validated0a5b506757…3290
02study.runstudy=illustrative-A · methods=AIPW, DR-ATT, IV-LATE, neural, Γd8e7e50348…ed6a
03signal.triagesignal=illustrative · meddra_pt=assigned · severity=higha466c54b8d…a8b8
04signal.signoffsignal=illustrative · dual_attest=true · state=signed_off35a2e96c2a…344e
05certificate.issuecertificate=illustrative-A · git=pinned · libraries=pinned1b871b2ad4…d338
5 / 5 verified
08 · official Python SDK

pip install rosenbound

pip install rosenbound

Programmatic access to the audited platform — for CRO methodology leads, drug-safety directors, and RWE teams who script cohort uploads, run sensitivity-bounded studies, and pull reproducibility certificates without leaving their analysis environment.

v0.1.3 stablev0.2.2rc1 pre-releasePython ≥ 3.10Apache 2.0Bearer-token authPydantic v2py.typed View on PyPI →
  • Cohorts. Upload CSV + DSL; track validation state; pull reproducibility hashes.
  • Studies. Create, run, and fetch results from the five-method sensitivity pentagon.
  • Reproducibility certificates. Retrieve the certificate + methodology PDF for every signed-off study — the audit artifact your QA team hands to an FDA inspector.

Getting an API token. Design Partners receive scoped API tokens during onboarding — issued from the platform’s admin surface, tenant-locked, limited to the RBAC roles each team member needs. → Become a Design Partner

09 · methodology filing

Patent-pending methodology.

Five inventive concepts covering causal inference, audit-trail integrity, capability-aware abstention, modular cognitive substrate, and hybrid neuro-symbolic clinical evidence extraction.

— USPTO provisional filing

Filing detail

Harsh Singh filed a USPTO provisional patent on March 22, 2026, sole inventor, covering the methodology stack behind Rosenbound. The twelve-month window to non-provisional or PCT runs through March 22, 2027. Clinical AI is the first application of the underlying architecture. Algorithmic and architectural detail is available to Design Partners under NDA. Capability-level description is shared openly; implementation specifics are held back.

10 · design partner program

Run Rosenbound on synthetic cohorts. Tell us what breaks.

Rosenbound is selecting a small number of design partners across pharma drug-safety teams, CRO methodology groups, and academic RWE units. A Design Partnership costs nothing and moves no data: the platform provides production-shape synthetic cohorts; your team runs the full workflow — intake, pentagon, Γ-bounds, sign-off, certificate — in the live environment and tells us where it falls short of what a regulator would accept.

what you get

What you get

  • Full platform access on synthetic data
  • Direct access to the founder, not a ticket queue
  • A structured feedback session each month
  • Your team named as a design partner, with your consent
  • Co-authorship on any benchmark run against a cohort you specify, with your approval
  • First access to every new module
what we ask

What we ask

  • Two to four hours a month from a methodologist or safety lead
  • Written feedback against a short protocol we supply
  • Permission to quote anonymised findings
Apply → A handful of seats. Selecting through Q4 2026.